A very interesting article from the Financial Review about the renewalbe energy boom and how it impacts the government's plan to merge energy security with a RET.
Wind and solar boom makes Malcolm Turnbull's NEG a dead letter
The blistering pace of wind and solar energy investment is outflanking the Turnbull government's target for carbon emissions cuts under its National Energy Guarantee, ramping up pressure for deeper cuts, a new report says.
Green Energy Markets says the capacity of wind and solar energy projects under construction, contracted or expected or due to be contracted under state and corporate auctions already exceeds the amount expected to be built under the National Energy Guarantee (NEG) with the government's current emissions reduction target.
Projects already under way, contracted or under tender will add 9691 megawatts of new capacity to the National Electricity Market by the early 2020s, the energy consultancy's Renewable Energy Index for March 2018 shows.
This is more than the 9271MW that the Energy Security Board's economic modeller Frontier Economics forecasts will be built under the NEG by 2030.
This means that unless the government's target – a 26 per cent emissions reduction target from electricity by 2030 – is lifted sharply, the NEG will add no meaningful new capacity to investment in new wind and solar energy, Green Energy Markets' director Tristan Edis said.
'Vastly more ambitious'
Mr Edis said the upshot was that "we can achieve vastly more ambitious emission reduction targets with minimal difficulty and cost".
This adds to pressure on the government from federal and state Labor and industry to embrace a deeper emissions cuts target as energy minister Josh Frydenberg prepares to meet his state and territory counterparts on Friday to ask the Energy Security Board (ESB) to press on with the detailed design of the NEG.